December will be a pivotal month for Cardiff city centre, with indications suggesting that Black Friday and Cyber Monday will play a major role in shaping overall Q4 economic performance. That’s the key takeaway from new retail data from Beauclair shared by FOR Cardiff, the city centre Business Improvement District (BID).
October Beauclair data for Cardiff revealed a -2.5% year-on-year decline in monthly sales, a softer drop than the -4.1% national benchmark, highlighting that the Welsh capital is outperforming other major UK cities despite ongoing economic uncertainty. But while customer numbers and transactions dipped in October, two of Cardiff’s strongest sectors, Fashion (+2.4%) and Grocery (+1.0%), are expected to lead a December surge spending, driven by discount-led shopping – and the city’s growing appeal as a festive destination.
With Beauclair’s national data showing that UK consumers delayed October spending, November’s upcoming mega-retail weekend is predicted to be a crucial trigger for unlocking pent-up demand – particularly in Fashion and Food & Drink, two of Cardiff’s highest-value sectors in October.
“If the Black Friday to Cyber Monday period performs strongly, it could set the pace for December and help stabilise our city-centre trading after a cautious autumn,” explained Carolyn Brownell, Executive Director, FOR Cardiff.
To support city centre businesses at this crucial moment, FOR Cardiff recently launched two major new festive light projections as part of its A Very Cardiff Christmas campaign – designed specifically to attract visitors during key high-spend periods including Black Friday weekend, Cyber Monday, and early-December Christmas shopping peaks. The installations transform Cardiff Market and Cardiff Central Station into free, large-scale festive landmarks, using light, colour and Welsh storytelling to encourage visitors to explore, shop, dine and stay longer in the city centre.
The launch coincided with the start of late-night Christmas shopping in the city centre, and with FOR Cardiff’s expanded Weekend Park & Ride service, supporting both footfall growth and sustainable travel into the city centre.
Carolyn Brownell continued, “FOR Cardiff is committed to creating reasons for people to choose the city centre during these key periods – from our new light projections to the wider A Very Cardiff Christmas programme and our Weekend Park & Ride service. These activations help drive footfall, support businesses, and celebrate the creativity and community that make Cardiff so special at this time of year.”
FOR Cardiff continues to work with businesses across the city centre to track trends, support growth, and champion the value of Cardiff as a destination for visitors, workers and residents alike.
Key insights informing the December forecast:
Cardiff is outperforming the national picture — but pressure remains
· Cardiff October sales: -2.5% YoY
· UK benchmark: -4.1% YoY
Fashion and Food & Drink expected to lead December growth
· Fashion October sales up +2.4% YoY (vs UK decline of -4.0%)
· Food & Drink up +1.2%
Cardiff remains a regional draw
· Cardiff is continuing to attract ‘Outer City’ and ‘Rest of Wales’ customers’, a trend that supports high intent, planned shopping and spending trips in December.
Consumers are still cautious, making key upcoming dates vital
· Customer numbers and revenue per person were slightly down in October, reinforcing that shoppers are being selective and value driven. As a result, the city’s big touchpoints – Black Friday, Cyber Monday, late-night shopping, light trails and festive events – will be central to unlocking spending.